Extremely close Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi remained uncalled as of Wednesday, leaving open the possibility that the Democratic majority could increase by two more seats to 56 to 44. Democrats have already secured at least 54 seats, flipping seven Republican held seats on Tuesday, but the final size of the majority now depends on two very different states, two very different counting systems, and two timelines that could stretch for days. The result is a majority that is already certain, and a margin that is still unknown.
Why it matters
Alaska will take the longest. The race there may not be called for more than a week because of ranked choice tabulation, a system in which voters rank candidates and ballots are counted in rounds until one candidate holds a majority. That process is slower by design, and it is also harder to predict, because second and third preferences can overturn a first round lead. Alaska has a history of close and surprising Senate results, and this year is following that pattern.
Mississippi is a different kind of uncertainty. The contest between Democrat Scott Colom and Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith was separated by a razor thin margin in a state that President Trump won by 23 points two years ago. The timeline for a decision there remained unclear on Wednesday, and a race that close can turn on a small number of ballots, on provisional votes, or on a recount. Whatever the outcome, the closeness itself is a story: a state that was not expected to be competitive produced one of the closest Senate races in the country.
What happens next
The margin matters for governing, not only for headlines. A 54 seat majority can confirm nominees and set the calendar, but a 56 seat majority gives Democratic leaders more room to lose votes on difficult bills, more flexibility in committee assignments, and a stronger hand in negotiations with the White House. It also changes the psychology of the Senate, where a larger majority is harder for the minority to portray as fragile or accidental.
For the two states, the wait is also a test of patience. Alaska voters are accustomed to slow counts, and Mississippi voters are watching a race that few predicted would be close. The counting will proceed at its own pace, and the responsible course is to wait for it rather than to declare a result that the ballots have not yet produced. The majority is already decided. The margin is the last open question of the night.
