More than 230,000 Mississippians were listed as inactive on the voter rolls before the midterm election, up from about 166,000 in 2024, and that administrative decision is now at the centre of the closest Senate race in the country. Voters listed as inactive had to cast affidavit ballots, and thousands of those ballots are still being counted in a race where Democrat Scott Colom leads Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by about 2,000 ballots, with 96 percent of votes counted. The count, and the rules for it, will decide who goes to Washington.
Why it matters
The inactive listings came from a review that used third party address data to flag voters who may have moved, and the secretary of state office signed a 50,000 dollar contract with Experian to help verify voter addresses. Voters who were flagged had to show identification or file a religious objection to have their ballot counted, and they have until Tuesday, November 10, to do so at their local circuit clerk office. The Mississippi Republican Party chair said affidavit ballots were being validated at up to 80 percent of the time, which means a large share of them will count, but not all of them.
The geography of the remaining ballots matters as much as the rules. DeSoto County, among the state most populous, is reported as a key remaining battleground in the count, and it voted Democrat in a Senate race for the first time since 1982. In Hinds County, the Democratic stronghold, Colom had 61,793 votes to Hyde-Smith 14,702, and he also led in DeSoto County, which Trump won by 24 points in 2024. In Forrest County, which includes Hattiesburg, Colom led 54 percent to 44 percent with 97 percent of ballots counted, a result that would have been unthinkable a decade ago.
What happens next
The closeness itself is a story, whatever the outcome. President Trump won Mississippi by 23 points two years ago, and Hyde-Smith led for most of election night before Colom closed the gap as late returns arrived from Hinds County and from majority Black counties in the Delta and Southwest Mississippi. Independent candidate Ty Pinkins won about 19,900 votes, or 2.1 percent of the total, far more than the gap between the two leaders, and his voters have become the most analysed group in the state. Colom raised 5 million dollars against a little more than 3 million for Hyde-Smith, and he flipped seven counties that Hyde-Smith carried in 2020.
What happens next will be decided by the affidavit ballots, the mailed ballots that arrive by November 10, and the counties certification deadline on November 13. The race is harder to settle in Mississippi than in most states, because the state has no recount provision, no automatic recount and no process for a candidate to request one, so whoever finishes ahead takes the seat, and any dispute will go to the courts. For Mississippi voters, the stakes are simpler: a result they can trust, and a voter roll they can understand.
