This morning, Theresa May announced her decision to step down as an MP at the next election.
Not only is May the most senior Tory MP to announce their decision to quit – she is also the 63rd.
In the lead-up to the 1997 election – which saw Tony Blair win a historic landslide victory – 72 Tory MPs threw in the towel. Given the election may not be for another 6 months, we’re getting remarkably close to that figure already.
The former Prime Minister, who has built up a strong personal support base in her 27 years as the MP for Maidenhead, held her seat in the 2019 election with a majority of 18,846.
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The former Prime Minister has built up a strong personal support base in her 27 years as the MP for Maidenhead
PA
In one sense, the current exodus is a vicious cycle. In May’s case, there’s a chance that people in her constituency will turn their backs on the Tories if the pull of a local figure disappears – making the current Tory crisis which is driving so many of them out even worse.
The calibre of MPs the party is losing should worry the PM, with a list of quitters including former deputy PM Dominic Raab, former Chancellor Sajid Javid and 1922 committee chair Sir Graham Brady.
But another concerning factor for Sunak is the fact that many of those who are quitting have sizeable majorities.
In Bromsgrove, Javid has a majority of 23,106. MP for Windsor Adam Afriye has a majority of 20,079. Gordon Henderson has a majority of 24,479 in Sittingbourne & Sheppey. In Broxbourne, Sir Charles Walker has a majority of 19,807.
Are MPs with 20,000 vote majorities scared of losing their seats? Or perhaps they’re just not keen on what could be a decade in opposition.
Many of them have used other excuses for going. May, for example, said she decided to step down to spend more time championing causes close to her heart.
But realistically, the sheer scale of quitters can only truly be explained by Sunak’s devastating approval ratings.
Just this morning, analysis published by the Liberal Democrats showed that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt could lose his seat as a result of growing fury from pensioners in his constituency. Their analysis suggested that as many as 37 other MPs could face the same fate.
The reality is likely to be even worse if the current polling facing the Tories becomes a reality. Clearly, many Tory MPs don’t want to hang around to find out.
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