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Reform UK could cost the Tories up to 53 seats a new survey has claimed.
A study conducted by Electoral Calculus for the Daily Mail involving 18,000 people in multiple polls forecast that the Conservatives are on course for their worst election defeat in history.
If the party were to stand down candidates in some constituencies, the Tories could win 133 seats, as per the survey.
However, if Reform contested those seats as intended, then the Conservatives are expected to win just 80 seats, according to the survey.
Reform UK could leave the Tories with just 80 MPs
PA
Meanwhile, Labour is on course to win 470 seats if Reform contests every constituency.
If Reform were to reach some sort of deal with the Tories, that would reduce Labour’s share of the House of Commons to 430 MPs.
The survey also highlights that the Tories are under threat by the Liberal Democrats in a number of ‘Blue-wall’ seats.
The analysis suggests that the Lib Dems could increase their share of seats from 15 to 48.
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Reform UK is not expected to stand aside for the Tories
PA
Nigel Farage, honorary president of Reform, has consistently said that Reform will not do a deal with the Tories to stand aside in a similar manner to 2019.
A Reform spokesperson said: “The Tories are, as they always are, so arrogant as to never consider the need for anything else.
“They would be deluded to think they could persuade Reform to call off the dogs. The simple fact is they have nothing to offer the country.
“So how they can pin their hopes on the undecided 15 per cent, they would have more chancing pinning them on a donkey.”
The survey also highlights that the Tories are under threat by the Liberal Democrats in a number of ‘Blue-wall’ seats
PA
This comes as Downing Street has left the door open to a potential summer general election.
Speculation has been mounting regarding a June or July election, something which No10 did not deny on Sunday.
A source pointed to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s prior comments that his “working assumption” was that the election would be in the second half of the year, adding there was “still lots to get done and need to continue the work we’re doing on the economy”.
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