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The future of the United Kingdom looks increasingly uncertain, with a rehashed Brexit deal turning Unionists in Northern Ireland against each other.
Ulster, which joined the Union along with the rest of the Emerald Isle in 1801, could for the first time see a plurality of Nationalist MPs returned to Westminster in a general election.
Such a situation, in reality, would likely still leave the DUP as the largest sitting party, given Sinn Fein MPs refuse to take their seats in the House of Commons.
However, it would remain significant if Nationalists outnumbered Unionists just months after Sinn Fein’s deputy leader Michelle O’Neill is expected to become Ulster’s first ever unification-supporting First Minister.
Many Unionists have been left frustrated by Sir Jeffrey Donaldson’s deal with Chris Heaton-Harris
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The 2001 General Election, held just three-years after the ratification of the Good Friday Agreement, resulted in Unionists returning 11 out of 18 MPs.
By 2019, and with Brexit at the front and centre of the entire campaign, the Unionist contingent collapsed to just eight.
And the worst might still be yet to come for the DUP.
Donaldson could conceivably assume he scored a major victory by thrashing out his revised Brexit deal.
It is certainly true that Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak are happy.
Natioanlists are equally delighted after lauding the return to Stormont as a totemic moment in their pusuit for a United Ireland.
Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald said: “In historic terms, it is within touching distance and I think that is a very exciting thing and I hope people will find that a very welcoming conversation.”
She added: “That will be a moment of very great significance, not simply because we haven’t had Government for so long but because it will be the first time that we will have a Sinn Féin First Minister, a nationalist First Minister.”
Meanwhile, on the ground, the Unionist community is rumbling towards potential fury.
Donaldson’s first baptism of fire will come from his own MPs in Westminster.
The Lagan Valley MP, who became DUP leader following Edwin Poots’ disastrous month-long stint heading up Northern Ireland’s largest Unionist party, is already receiving a Brexit backlash.
Sammy Wilson, the DUP’s former Brexit spokesperson in Westminster, yesterday announced he remains opposed to a red lane for goods just hours after the deal was published.
He told MPs: “This is a result of this spineless, weak-kneed, Brexit-betraying Government, refusing to take on the EU and its interference in Northern Ireland.”
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Loyalists hold up placards during an anti Northern Ireland Protocol protest against the so called Irish Sea border
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Ian Paisley Jr, Carla Lockhart and Paul Girvan also expressed their concerns with the revised deal.
However, dissenting DUP MPs would come as no surprise.
Westminster is full of the dark arts; ousting leaders, steering policy towards a different direction, and of course wars between ideologues and pragmatists.
Donaldson should instead be much more concerned with how the deal is perceived by the wider Unionist community in Ulster.
He is already on the charm offensive – uploading eye-catching infographics and recording slick clips explaining why the deal should bring the DUP’s Stormont boycott to an end.
However, it is fair to say this has not been well-received by a significant chunk of the Unionist community.
Lucid Talk pollster Bill White revealed Donaldson could face a challenge if Jim Allister parks the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice party on the DUP’s lawn.
He told GB News: “There is opposition out there. Our most recent poll showed that 72 per cent of the people that supported the boycott.
“However, that was DUP policy at the time and if the DUP change position then a large chunk of that 72 per cent will swing in behind them.
“They’re loyal to the party. But some of the 72 per cent will be annoyed and it could affect two or three Westminster seats.”
Sinn Fein deputy leader Michelle O’Neill (right) is expected to become Northern Ireland’s first nationalist First Minister
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Pinpointing the DUP’s vulnerabilities, White claimed: “The key point is a structure of the next election is first-past-the-post.
“The TUV is a small party, they don’t have any chance of realistically winning any seats, maybe a bit like Reform UK.
“They could decide to run in key seats and, if the annoyance is high enough with the deal and the DUP going back to Stormont, certain seats like East Belfast and, to a lesser extent, Jeffrey Donaldson seat of Lagan Valley could see the TUV split the Unionist vote and allow an opposing candidate to get in.
“That would most likely be an Alliance Party candidate, which is the major middle growing party.
After cautioning the DUP would accuse the TUV of “splitting” the Unionist vote, White added: “In East Belfast and Lagan Valley, the TUV could allow the Alliance to win those seats but in South Belfast they could allow the SDLP to retain the seat.
“Unionists could take South Belfast back, particularly with the new boundary changes, but they will not win it back if there is a TUV candidate running who gets a few thousand votes. The DUP needs every Unionist vote to win that seat.”
The constitutional issue is the joint-top issue for Unionist voters, alongside health and the economy.
However, White also highlighted how apathy could impact the DUP, with some 2019 voters potentially opting to stay at home.
The TUV did not contest the 2019 general election but is now clear pro-UK voters must have a candidate to vote for if the DUP does decide to end its Stormont boycott while accepting EU law and an Irish Sea border.
Such a schism within the Unionist community would enable pro-unification politicians to seize first-choice control of Stormont and command at least win a plurality of seats in Westminster.
TUV leader Jim Allister could pose a major electoral problem for the DUP
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Jim Allister has looked to jump on the electoral opportunity immediately.
The TUV leader, who opposes devolution in Stormont, said: “When you strip away all the spin and the hype really there is nothing of substance that deals with the core issues.
“There’s nothing that removes one word of the protocol, removes one syllable of EU law but instead continuing to be governed in part by laws we don’t make and can’t change, and leaves Northern Ireland still under the EU’s customs code which means that under that code Great Britain is decreed to be a foreign country.
“Anyone who suggests that these proposals restore Northern Ireland’s position in the United Kingdom is deluded.”
He added: “Unionism cannot afford to roll over on this and the only thing that has changed today is that sadly the DUP has become protocol implementers.”
A TUV source issued a warning to the DUP about its position, telling GB News: “Having achieved nothing of substance after campaigning with TUV policies only to abandon them for the sake of office, we await with interest the response of the Unionist electorate.”
The insider, who described devolution as a “disaster” and the protocol as a “land-grab”, added: “The fact that the DUP had refused to show members of his own party executive the actual text of the deal was very telling.
“We also note that the result of the vote inside the executive has been kept secret.
“The DUP has merely said that the result was ‘decisive’.
“You can have a ‘decisive’ vote with a majority of one.
“We don’t know the margin of the vote but surely DUP voters should.”
Former Northern Irish First Minister Arlene Foster
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Some Unionists have called for Donaldson to debate Allister or loyalist campaigner Jamie Bryson.
Bryson perhaps became emblematic of the problems posed to the DUP after he provided live coverage of the party’s executive meeting on social media.
He proved such a thorn in Donaldson’s side that the DUP leader moaned that a member of the executive had “betrayed” the party by leaking proceedings.
Warning Donaldson’s negotiations brought no changes and labelling the deal a “surrender”, Bryson issued another political threat by sharing a post from a Unionist voter questioning why he should support the DUP again.
But Bryson also made his voice heard by signing the so-called Keep Your Word letter.
Social media footage from across Northern Ireland shows dozens of people signing the letter, often adorned by Union Jacks, Rangers FC crests and pictures of King Charles III.
The letter describes returning to Stormont with an Irish Sea Border in place as a “dishonourable act of treachery” and warns the “future of our Union” depends on holding firm.
Ulstermen from Market Hill to Ravenhill and Shankill to North Down have signed the damning letter.
Despite many Unionists expressing their concerns, Donaldson is adamant the deal protects the integrity of Northern Ireland.
Sir Jeffrey Donaldson is looking to convince Unionists to support the deal
PA
During his slick video released yesterday, the DUP leader said: “These measures will remove the shadows of the protocol and safeguard our place within the Union.
“They will enable our businesses to trade freely with the rest of the United Kingdom and remove unnecessary checks on goods flowing within our internal market.
“With delivery of these measures, I believe there is now a stable and sustainable basis to restore our political institutions at Stormont in a manner that both Unionists and Nationalists can support.”
Donaldson also received a much-needed boost from former First Minister Baroness Arlene Foster.
She told GB News: “The DUP is devolutionist party and this is very important but there are some in the Unionist community, who don’t believe in devolution or are purists, who won’t want to see this.
“Politics is about trying to get the best deal possible. It’s about Donaldson making progress on the Seven Tests and he will be pleased about that.”
Foster added: “If you’re a Unionist, you want to see Northern Ireland working so I think most people would welcome devolution coming back.”
Taking a swipe at the TUV, the ex-First Minister claimed: “This would not be the first time Jim Allister has run candidates against the DUP and I don’t think the DUP will be too concerned about that but what they will want to do is get Stormont up and running again and make it work.”
The UK Government also appears happy with the situation but Heaton-Harris made it clear the wider Unionist community was not involved in talks.
He told GB News: “The parties entitled to form an executive are meeting today [January 31] to discuss these matters and I hope we’ll be able to finalise this deal with those parties as soon as possible and move forward.”
Irrespective of joy in Westminster, it will take some time to see just how willing Unionists in Northern Ireland are to lie down and accept that Northern Ireland is being treated differently to Great Britain as a consequence of the UK’s decision to leave the EU.
GB News has also approached the more moderate Ulster Unionist Party for comment to try to represent the three most popular pro-UK groupings in Northern Ireland.
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